Macro & Events 1 min read
Bitcoin Halving
Also known as: Bitcoin Halving, Halvening
Scheduled event every ~4 years that cuts Bitcoin's block subsidy in half, reducing new supply issuance.
Schedule
| Halving | Block | Date | New subsidy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 210,000 | Nov 2012 | 50 → 25 BTC |
| 2nd | 420,000 | Jul 2016 | 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 3rd | 630,000 | May 2020 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 4th | 840,000 | Apr 2024 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 5th | 1,050,000 | ~ 2028 | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC |
Why it matters
- Issuance halves — new BTC entering the market drops sharply.
- Miners' revenue halves overnight unless price compensates. Weak miners capitulate, hashrate redistributes.
- Historically, peaks of the subsequent cycle arrived 12–18 months after each halving.
Is the pattern guaranteed?
No. Past three cycles rhyme, but sample size is tiny. With ETFs and institutional flows, the 2024+ cycle might behave differently. Treat halving as context, not a signal.