How to Read SOPR — A Practical Guide
A no-nonsense playbook for reading SOPR on real charts — what levels matter, which variant to pick, and the traps to avoid.
What SOPR actually is
SOPR measures whether the average coin moved on-chain today was sold at a profit or at a loss.
- > 1 — profit taking.
- < 1 — loss realization (capitulation).
- ≈ 1 — breakeven zone, acts as dynamic S/R.
The three cohorts
| Variant | Window | Personality |
|---|---|---|
| aSOPR | All coins, excl. sub-1h outputs | General mood |
| STH-SOPR | Coins held < 155 days | Fast, reactive, noisy |
| LTH-SOPR | Coins held ≥ 155 days | Slow, macro-cycle signal |
The playbook
1. Bull market — buy the dip to SOPR = 1
In an uptrend, aSOPR dropping back to 1.0 and immediately bouncing is a textbook buy signal. It means the market refused to realize losses — dip got bought.
Every major BTC bull uptrend (2017, 2020, 2024) shows this pattern repeatedly on the daily chart.
2. Bear market — fade rallies at SOPR = 1
In a downtrend, aSOPR rallying up to 1.0 and rejecting is a fade-the-bounce signal. Holders take every chance to exit at breakeven.
3. Capitulation bottoms with LTH-SOPR
When LTH-SOPR dips well below 1 (e.g. 0.7–0.8), it means long-term holders are selling at a loss — a sign of maximum pain. Historically coincides with cycle lows.
4. Cycle tops with STH-SOPR
When STH-SOPR spikes well above 1.05 and stays there for weeks, short-term holders are sitting on massive gains. Distribution usually follows.
Common mistakes
- Daily noise — use 7-day SMA of SOPR, not raw daily.
- Ignoring trend context — same SOPR level means opposite things in bull vs bear.
- Standalone signals — combine with MVRV Z-Score and exchange flows.
Where to look in Exum
On any asset's detail page, add the SOPR, STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR layers from the Data Layer panel. Overlay them with price and toggle the 7-day smoothing option.